The odds of patterns in a shuffled deck
Shuffle a deck properly and patterns still surface - runs, flushes, four aces side by side. On shuffle.day these are called finds: 52 of them, one for every card in the deck. Here is how likely each one is to appear in a single random shuffle.
How these numbers were measured. Every probability below was observed empirically: ten million decks shuffled with the same cryptographic Fisher-Yates shuffle that deals the daily shuffle (see how it works), passed through the production pattern-detection engine, and tallied. A shuffle counts once per pattern if the pattern appears at least once, after the engine's best-version-only rule (a run of five is counted as one Straight, not also as a Run of Four inside it). Odds rarer than about 1 in 10,000 carry sampling noise even at this size; the Royal Flush is stated from exact mathematics, since ten million shuffles is not enough to expect a single one.
| Pattern | What it is | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | An Ace and a 10-value card adjacent | 83% | 1 in 1.2 |
| Suited Three | Three cards of the same suit in a row | 82.8% | 1 in 1.2 |
| Three Pairs | Three or more separate pairs in one shuffle | 53.6% | 1 in 1.9 |
| Suited Blackjack | An Ace and a 10-value card of the same suit, adjacent | 45.1% | 1 in 2.2 |
| Pair | Two cards of the same rank, adjacent | 41.2% | 1 in 2.4 |
| Colour Streak 6 | Six or more cards of one colour in a row | 40.2% | 1 in 2.5 |
| Alternating 7 | Seven cards alternating red and black | 29.4% | 1 in 3.4 |
| Suited Four | Four cards of the same suit in a row | 29.4% | 1 in 3.4 |
| Run of Three | Three cards in rank sequence | 21.9% | 1 in 4.6 |
| Mirror | Three or more rank-mirrored pairs (positions 1 & 52, 2 & 51...) | 19.2% | 1 in 5.2 |
| Two Pair | An AABB pattern in four consecutive cards | 14.9% | 1 in 6.7 |
| Triple | Three cards of the same rank, adjacent | 9.3% | 1 in 11 |
| Colour Streak 8 | Eight or more cards of one colour in a row | 8.9% | 1 in 11 |
| Suited Five | Five cards of the same suit, consecutive | 6.2% | 1 in 16 |
| Natural | The first two cards form a blackjack | 4.8% | 1 in 21 |
| Alternating 10 | Ten cards alternating red and black | 4.2% | 1 in 24 |
| Royal Marriage | K♥ and Q♥ adjacent | 3.85% | 1 in 26 |
| Perfect Blackjack | A♠ and J♠ adjacent | 3.85% | 1 in 26 |
| Ace in the Hole | The A♠ as the final card | 1.93% | 1 in 52 |
| Ace High | The A♠ as the first card | 1.92% | 1 in 52 |
| Colour Streak 10 | Ten or more cards of one colour in a row | 1.69% | 1 in 59 |
| Run of Four | Four cards in rank sequence | 1.63% | 1 in 61 |
| Full House | AAABB or AABBB in five consecutive cards | 1.27% | 1 in 79 |
| Suited Six | Six cards of the same suit, consecutive | 1.13% | 1 in 88 |
| The Court | The J, Q and K of one suit adjacent, in any order | 0.90% | 1 in 111 |
| Triple Sevens | Three 7s adjacent | 0.89% | 1 in 113 |
| Dead Man's Hand | Two Aces and two Eights in four consecutive cards | 0.63% | 1 in 160 |
| Two Triples | Two separate three-of-a-kinds | 0.59% | 1 in 170 |
| Alternating 13 | Thirteen cards alternating red and black | 0.56% | 1 in 179 |
| Descending Top Five | The first five cards in descending rank order | 0.42% | 1 in 236 |
| Ascending Top 5 | The first five cards in ascending rank order | 0.42% | 1 in 237 |
| Opening Straight | The first five cards form a straight, in any order | 0.39% | 1 in 255 |
| Hall of Mirrors | Six or more rank-mirrored pairs | 0.38% | 1 in 261 |
| Quad | Four cards of the same rank, adjacent | 0.20% | 1 in 500 |
| Opening Flush | The first five cards all of one suit | 0.20% | 1 in 506 |
| Suited Seven | Seven cards of the same suit, consecutive | 0.18% | 1 in 564 |
| Rainbow Run | Four cards in sequence, one of each suit | 0.18% | 1 in 566 |
| Opening Full House | The first five cards form a full house | 0.14% | 1 in 705 |
| The Countdown | Five or more cards in descending rank sequence | 0.14% | 1 in 731 |
| Straight | Five cards in rank sequence | 0.13% | 1 in 777 |
| The Flood | Thirteen or more cards of one colour in a row | 0.089% | 1 in 1,119 |
| Suited Eight | Eight cards of the same suit, consecutive | 0.027% | about 1 in 3,700 |
| The Four Horsemen | All four Kings adjacent | 0.018% | about 1 in 5,500 |
| Four Aces | All four Aces adjacent | 0.018% | about 1 in 5,600 |
| Baker's Dozen | All thirteen ranks in the first thirteen cards | 0.011% | about 1 in 9,600 |
| Run of Six | Six cards in rank sequence | 0.0098% | about 1 in 10,000 |
| Solitaire 5 | Five consecutive cards alternating colour in descending rank | 0.0082% | about 1 in 12,000 |
| Run of Seven | Seven cards in rank sequence | 0.0008% | about 1 in 120,000 |
| Factory Run | Four or more consecutive cards in factory-deck order | 0.0008% | about 1 in 130,000 |
| Straight Flush | Five consecutive cards of one suit, in rank order | 0.0007% | about 1 in 140,000 |
| Two Quads | Two separate four-of-a-kinds | 0.0003% | about 1 in 340,000 |
| Royal Flush | 10-J-Q-K-A of one suit, consecutive and in order | 0.00006% | 1 in 1,624,350 (exact) |
Positions are adjacency in the dealt order of one 52-card deck. "10-value card" means 10, J, Q or K. Measured July 2026; figures update if the engine's rules change.
Every one of these is waiting in someone's daily shuffle.
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